By the global economic slowdown and other factors, China's foreign trade in November 2008 appeared the first time in seven years of negative growth. Today and tomorrow, December 2008 foreign trade data will be released, is expected is likely to decline in the second month in a row, but whether the parties to the further deterioration of the foreign trade situation there are some differences.
JP Morgan's forecast is more optimistic that the rate of decline in December exports and imports will slow down. According to the bank's expected growth rate of imports in December were -13.4% and -0.9%, compared with November's -17.9% and -2.2% are moderated.
JP Morgan economist Wu Xianghong said November exports fell sharply, partly due to the "Christmas orders," a lot of cancellation. Financial crisis led to the credit market freeze, Christmas products, the importer can not open a letter of credit from banks, these orders can only be canceled. While exports will continue in December with negative growth, but slow as the global credit markets return to normal, the impact of this will be weakened.
The import side, JP Morgan Chase that, in December on a monthly growth rate will reach 3.3%, -23.8% in November reversed the decline. Rating agency Moody's economist Chen Yingjia that the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan will help stimulate domestic demand, manufacturing enterprises has improved inventory, signs that domestic demand has stabilized.
Relatively pessimistic side is that the foreign trade situation will further deteriorate. Xinhua quoted foreign financial sources as saying that the import in December year on year growth rate was -21.3% and -2.8%, decreased markedly accelerated. According to Dow Jones Newswires survey of 12 economists expected value of import and export growth in December was -19.1% and -3.8%, the same decline has accelerated.
Pessimistic side of the concerns about evidence-based, new orders reflect the very weak external demand. The latest index of December manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in new export orders index was 30.7% for six consecutive months below 50%. Usually less than 50% that indicates a state of contraction. Customs previously published statistical analysis, said the downward trend in imports and exports will continue for some time, according to the current international and domestic economic environment is estimated that in 2009 the import and export growth may slow to below 5%.
In contrast, the market for the surplus will be from November's record highs has been the consensus view. JP Morgan expects December trade surplus of $ 34 billion. The Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists expected value of 340 billion dollars.
Jing Ulrich, managing director of JP Morgan Chase, said China's processing trade export-oriented, the original dependence on net exports is not high, but the export contraction in import demand for raw materials, the supply of upstream and downstream industries, business fixed investment has impact. With business failures, unemployment pressure, real estate and discretionary domestic demand, the formation of trapped inside and outside the case. (Source: Oriental Morning Post, Li Yaozong)